Thursday, September 12, 2013

GOLD is golden

MARKETS WILL REMAIN IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT... great words someone said somewhere that has been stuck in my mind for a long time.

With that being said, I believe Gold's recent drop this week is very irrational. Because the positives far outweigh the negatives.

Positives:

  • Fed is NOT tapering this year. Even if they do, they will probably reduce their purchase amount by 10 billion, at most. This reduction i believe is already priced in.
  • Syria crisis is no where close to solution. What Russia is doing is a "Stall Tactic" and will fall apart pretty soon. 
  • Emerging market's crash is over which should increase demand in gold - India largest consumer of physical gold. 
  • China stimulus for their economy if happens, will make money cheap, again upside potential for gold. 
  • A little hint of inflation in the US $$$, which has to happen if Fed keeps the bond buying program intact, should also help raise the gold price. 
Negatives:
  • Rise in interest rates
  • Fear of Fed Tapering
  • "Great rotation" if that is really happening as market gurus are speculating then it might stall upswing.
Verdict:
I see Gold setting up stage for a massive upswing soon. Might fall further in ST but it will yield profit. 

I currently hold slightly out of money calls and might add more if it falls further.

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