Friday, September 13, 2013

Bear Case - Future looks gloomy

Both $BAC and $JPM have come up with gloomy analysis for future US growth (links below). My verdict - WallStreet has become a legal gambling ring with uneven playing field where the stakes are increasingly getting higher. A BIG caution for retail investors!

Fundamental analysis -
There is no fundamental reason for the stocks to be soaring at all-time high level when we are struggling to keep GDP rate at even 2%, and unemployment under 7% with interest rates near 0% - AND THAT IS WITH ALL THE STIMULUS MONEY! This should send chills down your spine. There is no real growth anywhere - global growth has stalled. Plus, the inter-twined "Global financial system" that we have created has made things so complicated and interdependent that one of the economy's bust could drag everyone else down with it.

Technical analysis - 
Look at SnP's 5 year chart below - we have been in a secular bull market since mid-2009 with 4 noticeable corrections in the chart. Technically speaking, a healthy  bull market should always go through cyclical bear markets every now and then in between to ensure proper distribution and accumulation of assets. All these corrections you see below were very short lived which is another flag for a big wave coming - in other words, perhaps a good 20% market correction on the horizon? Who knows ...

Source: MarketWatch

Some links that further support my argument.

Gloomy GPD: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-potential-gdp-growth-lowest-since-ww2-2013-8
Gloomy Housing: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-markets-about-to-get-squeezed-2013-09-13
Gloomy Consumer Sentiment: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-hits-five-month-low-2013-09-13


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